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Crunch time for Norway, Italy, and European giants, plus Nigeria's last stand
Navigating the November international break with FotMob
By the time you go to bed next Tuesday, you’ll be able to list 42 out of the 48 nations that will take part at the 2026 World Cup. That’s a massive jump up from the 28 already confirmed at the time of writing this week’s newsletter. We won’t find out the final six until next March, when the last playoffs take place, well after the mammoth group stage draw that FIFA will be undertaking on 5 December.
England’s Three Lions are the only European nation to have secured their place at next year’s World Cup as we head in to the final double matchweek in qualifying. They remain unbeaten in such games since 2009, which is a record to be proud of.
Thomas Tuchel’s side will still have a massive role to play in their group, though, with games against Serbia tonight (Thursday), and then Albania on Sunday, with those two fierce rivals currently vying for the runners-up place and a second chance at qualification through the playoffs.
Portugal head the queue next to qualify
Cristiano Ronaldo will lead out his Portuguese side in Dublin, where they face Ireland tonight, with the sole aim of getting the win they need to qualify for what will be their talisman’s 15th major international tournament. If he can extend his world record for international goals scored in the men’s game in the process, we’re sure he’ll be happy to do so.
Ronaldo has bagged five goals during this qualification period, taking his overall tally to 143 goals in 225 appearances for Portugal.
In Group J, Belgium are in a similar situation, but with the added bonus that they have two games against sides already eliminated in order to get the three points they require to make it to their fourth straight finals. They go to Kazakhstan first on Saturday, then face Liechtenstein at home. The remaining interest in this group will stem from Wales and North Macedonia’s efforts to take second place, which could come down to a game between them in Cardiff next Tuesday.
Switzerland have such a superior goal difference advantage over Group B chasers Kosovo that a win on Saturday, against a Swedish side currently on a run of three straight defeats without scoring a goal, means that the Swiss will be home and dry in all but name.
The connotations for Spain in Group E are the same. The European champions have four wins from four in a four-team group and a goal difference of 12 over nearest rivals Türkiye. That means they can’t qualify on paper on Saturday, should they win in Georgia, but we can safely assume that we will be seeing them in the US, Canada, or Mexico next year!
France vs. Ukraine key for Deschamps
There’s a perceived wisdom in the game that Didier Deschamps, the longterm, very successful manager of Les Bleus, is past his sell by date, and that his French side has gone a little stale.
Deschamps has, of course, led France to the last two World Cup finals and would love to improve on his record of having won one, lost one. Which is why he has already stated his intention to step down after the 2026 finals - perhaps taking some of the power away from his critics by doing so.
But first, the French must qualify, and they can do so by beating Ukraine in Paris tonight. Deschamps has even brought trusted midfield lynchpin N’Golo Kanté back in to the fold in order to get there (see Must Reads below for more on that).
What will become of Scotland?
Steve Clarke’s Scots are aiming to get back to the World Cup for the first time since 1998 and their fate remains in their hands. Level on points with Denmark at the top of Group C, they need to match the Danes’ result when both are in action on Saturday night (Denmark play Belarus, Scotland go to Greece), to take qualification to a final game decider between the two sides, in Glasgow on Tuesday.
That could be massive.
Norway are so close to ending their long wait for a return to the world stage. With a three point lead over Italy and a huge +16 goal difference, and two games to play in Group I, Erling Haaland and the rest of his national team colleagues know that victory over Estonia, in Oslo, on Thursday will virtually confirm it.
That extra three points will mean that whatever else happens, they’ll just need to avoid a result so unlikely when they go to Italy on Sunday, that any such swing to the Azzurri will have the lawyers involved with the Calciopoli match-fixing scandal of the 2000s coming out of retirement.
Any talk of qualification is banned at FotMob HQ in Norway for fear of jinxing it. France ‘98 came long before mobile apps were even a thing, so we’ll leave it at this: Getting to follow Norway at a World Cup would mean an awful lot to a lot of people! Heia Norge!
If our preferred outcome comes to pass, that’ll mean Italy have to go through UEFA’s playoff route again. That has not proven a happy hunting ground for them in the past, with haunting memories of defeat to North Macedonia in 2022, and to Sweden in 2018 still fresh in the memory. Coach Gennaro Gattuso has even joked about going into exile should his side fail to make it through. At least, we thought he was joking…
The expansion of the World Cup to 48 teams meant that the African federation was handed an extra four automatic qualification places, redressing the continent’s past underrepresentation on the world stage, to some extent.
However, the resultant CAF qualifiers have left a number of big countries still at risk of not making it to the finals. Nigeria’s Super Eagles are one of those sides, a proud footballing nation that also missed the 2022 edition.
Their final chance of qualification comes by way of the CAF playoffs taking place this week - comprising of a semifinal against Gabon later today, and a final against either Cameroon or Congo on Sunday. AND THEN, should they win that, they’ll still have to battle through two further matches at FIFA’s inter-confederation playoffs due to take place next March.
Nigeria’s first overseas manager, Éric Chelle, has overseen three wins in their last four games, and with star striker Victor Osimhen currently the top scorer in the Champions League, he’s aware that he has the attacking talent at his disposal to fire them to the finals. It’s just about finding the balance in his squad.
“There are at least 25 players who could start across the frontline; more than a full team,” said Chelle who also has the 2025 AFCON later this year to plan for. “We manage it carefully. We’ve built a player-tracking system, monitoring around 80 players weekly. Selection is based on three criteria - club activity, performance, and tactical fit. Sometimes tactics take precedence.”
The only other FIFA Confederation still with automatic places up for grabs at next summer’s jamboree is CONCACAF. And in each of the three final stage groups, that seat at the top table remains wide open.
Steve McClaren’s Jamaica currently top Group B but qualification could all boil down to next Tuesday’s clash with Dick Advocaat’s Curaçao. To continue the name dropping, the Reggae Boyz face a trip to Dwight Yorke’s Trinidad & Tobago ahead of that.
Group A is a three-way battle between Suriname (looking to qualify for the first time in their history), Panama, and Guatemala (who have also never made the finals). The latter have the biggest say in things, with matches against the Canal Men and Suriname coming up.
Lastly, Honduras are best placed to make it out of Group C, and could secure their place with a win over Nicaragua tonight (Thursday), depending on Costa Rica’s result in the other game. Failing that, Tuesday’s clash between Honduras and Costa Rica will decide the group.
Didier Deschamps has never found an adequate replacement for his World Cup winning defensive midfield lynchpin from the 2018 finals…so he has brought back the original to help France get over the line in this qualifying run.
Brighton’s veteran striker didn’t get the surprise international recall from Thomas Tuchel that some were suggesting, but Welbeck is currently the top scoring Englishman in the Premier League. And with him turning 35 this season, he might be on for the best goal return of his career.
Whisper it, but with seven points separating leaders PSG to seventh placed Lyon, Marseille and Lens in particularly good form, and Luis Enrique’s perennial champions dropping points more regularly, we might have a title race on our hands.
Need to get a better feel for a game beyond our market leading stats, in-play momentum, and shot map graphics? Well, you could try following our live minute-by-minute match commentaries.
For the top level games in all the best competitions, this is a handwritten account of all the action, full of context and rich in match facts worth repeating in the group chat.
Head to any ongoing match and switch to the Commentary tab to take a look.
Bonus Tip: Click on any of the green links below, then tap the star in the top right of the match page to automatically add them to the top of your match feed.
Friday: In UEFA World Cup qualifiers, Groups A, G, and L are in action. Germany and Slovakia are level on points in the first of those, with Germany facing Luxembourg before a likely decider against Slovakia on Monday. In Group G, A win for the Netherlands in Poland will seal their place at next year’s finals.
Elsewhere, there’s a host of international friendlies, including a trip to Angola for reigning World Champions Argentina, and the Round of 32 gets underway at the U17 World Cup.
Saturday: Away from international football, the two-horse title race in Brazil continues as leaders Palmeiras go to Santos, who despite having Neymar in their squad, are on the verge of a shock relegation. Title rivals Flamengo play Sport Recife.
In Women’s football, Barcelona meet Real Madrid in El Clásico femenino, while there’s a Manchester Derby in the WSL.
Sunday: By the end of the weekend, most attention will be on the final UEFA qualifiers for a host of big nations, including the potentially pivotal meeting between Italy and Norway that we detailed above.
And we’ll see which African side makes it through to the inter-confederation playoffs as the CAF playoffs come to a head. Will it be Nigeria or someone else?