And then there were four…
FIFA constructed the 2026 World Cup draw so the top four teams in the World Rankings couldn’t meet before the semi-finals – and it’s worked out perfectly as far as football’s world governing body is concerned.
For the first time in World Cup history, the four semi-finalists are – as ranked by FIFA – the best four teams in the world (although it’s worth noting the FIFA World Ranking wasn’t introduced until December 1992).
Argentina led the last official FIFA rankings pre-tournament
It’s not the greatest surprise, then, that for the first time since 1990, every World Cup semi-finalist is a former winner. Three of them have lifted the trophy in the last 16 years: Argentina (2022), France (2018) and Spain (2014). For one, it’s been a bit of a longer wait: just the 60 years of hurt for England…
The 1966 World Cup was also the last time England reached the final, of course – but according to the Opta Supercomputer, Thomas Tuchel’s side have the second-highest chance of progressing (50.9%), fractionally higher than their semi-final opponents and great rivals Argentina (49.1%).
If the Supercomputer gets it right, we’re set for an England vs France final, with Les Bleus being given a 57.7% probability of making it compared to Spain’s 42.3%.
The battle to be the star of the World Cup hots up
We’re down to the best of the best in terms of teams, but who will reign supreme on an individual level at this World Cup? Only one can go home with the Golden Ball as player of the tournament.
Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi – neck and neck in the race for the Golden Boot, the former also hot on the latter’s heels in the battle for all-time World Cup goalscoring supremacy – are surely the two prime candidates, boasting the top two average FotMob ratings (Mbappé 8.87, Messi 8.73) – but there’s still time for others to stake a claim.
Mbappé leads the average FotMob ratings at the tournament
Four other players still involved in the competition hold ratings higher than 8.00: France trio Michael Olise (8.03), Aurélien Tchouaméni (8.07) and Ousmane Dembélé (8.08), and England’s man of the moment Jude Bellingham (8.12) – who became the first player since Diego Maradona in 1986 to score two or more goals in successive World Cup knockout games, and who you wouldn’t put it past to make that three in a row (or more…).
Messi has won the Golden Ball twice: as a runner-up in 2014 then as winning captain last time around; Mbappé has yet to get his hands on that particular accolade – nor has any English player since its introduction as an official award in 1982.
Who will go on to lift the trophy?
Where exactly does the business end of a 48-team World Cup begin? Oh well, we’re definitely in it now.
The most prolific attack of the tournament faces the meanest defence as France take on Spain in Tuesday’s first semi-final in Dallas, then it’s over to Atlanta on Wednesday for one of the great World Cup rivalries between England and Argentina.
Strap yourselves in.
A World Cup classic on the cards?
As they aim to become the first country since Brazil from 1994 to 2002 to reach three straight World Cup finals, France meet Spain for only the second time on this stage, having beaten La Roja 3-1 in the last 16 en route to the 2006 final. Spain themselves have made it this far for just the second time, after going all the way in 2010.
These two nations were many people’s pre-tournament favourites, but one of them must fall at the penultimate hurdle.
France’s all-star attack has been finding the net at will; Spain’s almost impervious defence was only breached for the first time in the quarter-finals. This could be a classic.
Predicted France starting XI
Can France continue to keep their cool?
This will be France’s seventh World Cup semi-final. They’ve won the last four, including at each of the last two tournaments. But that’s not just some historical statistic of questionable current relevance – a lot of these French players know exactly what it takes to get over the line and into the final.
Of the starting 11 one would expect Didier Deschamps to name against Spain, five started the 2-0 victory over Morocco in the 2022 World Cup semis – including now-captain Mbappé. If there’s another thing this French side doesn’t lack, it’s experience – and, on the evidence of their perfect run so far, cool – under the highest pressure.
Does recent history favour Spain?
Spain arguably have an even more impressive semi-final record than France at major tournaments. Across two semis at the World Cup and four at the Euros, La Roja have won five – their sole defeat coming on penalties to Italy at Euro 2020.
Similarly, this current crop of players has ample recent experience of making it to a major final (and lifting the trophy). Of the 11 players Luis de la Fuente is likely to pick from the start against France, six started the Euro 2024 semi triumph – and one more came off the bench. And who did Spain beat that day? Correct – France.
